Return to the Wild wasn’t just about poker blogging and grinding like I used to; it also meant a return to the swings of the game. When you make your results public, it’s too obvious to say they can’t be hidden. What matters is you can’t hide them from yourself.
I end $33,491 to the good, upstuck hard, and somewhat disappointed with myself.
I punted over the last hundred hours. I have a fairly significant edge and did not live up to it. I play limited hours and I need to shine. Instead, something within me seems to want to roll the dice. It’s not necessarily bad, but it does hurt.
Here’s the ending; I’ll do one more post with a graph and some better contemplation. For now, I’m tired. The race is run.

These last losses really sting.
Several big themes need to be addressed, in word and action:
- While I, comically, am a “variance truther,” meaning I can argue and show why “variance” is not really the issue for most players, the swings of poker are unquestionably hard. I sucked at my execution late in the challenge and was not bailed out by the deck.
- I reached the goal of getting back to five-ten, but not in the way I’d like. As soon as I got there, I had to drop back down after weeks of losing took its toll. We’ll call it an accomplishment but one with an asterisk.
- My hours continue to be short and underdone. This might be the toughest nut to crack. I didn’t drop out to tune in.
Ok, well, what happened, really? Most simply, as the challenge drew to a close, I made some cowardly decisions that cost money, some stupid decisions that costed more, and some reckless ones to balance those. That’s not the way to play.
The Tucson trip was a dark turn. The nights brought horrible dreams, the days the strangeness of family. I could not sleep and depression kept me out of action; when I went to the casino, I took joke beats that only happen at four a.m.
Meanwhile, my usual Wynn income disappeared while I hid at home, exhausted by the trip. Back in Las Vegas, I felt like I needed to sleep for days at a time, and then essentially did. This was a killer mistake, income-wise. I see this one very clearly now.
The outrageous car and travel-related, unanticipated expenses compounded the losing. Things can happen to the player that he cannot predict, and this can only be staved off by having a proper bankroll. Mine is okay but is now going to be tested for the first time in years. I think about all the failed aspirant in live poker that I have seen pass into the night or dealing: is the butcher of bankrolls here for me at last?
RTW was also a writing challenge. Poker blogs are scarce, and I am happy to contribute mine. They exist, however. Go through Substack and you will find more writing on poker than you might expect, certainly more than two years ago. While I joke that OOP is the “only poker blog” I don’t even think the joke is that good anymore – people are starting to think and communicate again. Social media has grown stale for many of us, streaming video has lost its kick.
The shoe I am dropping is that I need to focus on my game. It’s time to regroup and redeploy. This means the writing volume and focus will be different. One more RTW post looking at some hands and such, I think.
Despite the ending, it’s been fun and I hope you were entertained. I enjoyed simplifying my already simple drawings to a more symbolic language.
No Last Names Club
One other thing for Las Vegas readers: I’ve taken to buying poker players a meal at Norm’s each month on a Monday. Over BLTs we talk about the hardest way to make an easy living. If you’re struggling and want in or are doing well and want to give back, contact me for complete details.
GL all.
It’s a relief to see that even you the immortal P is sometimes mortal at the tables. I was released to the wild on April 16th, with my corporate job ending and finally going into semi-retirement. In the subsequent 6 sessions at 1/3 and 3/5 I made $1,858 in 20 hours of play or $93/hr. I was +$3,757 in cash games for the year, with 61 hours of play. More astonishingly, I was profitable in 15 of 16 sessions YTD. Then in the span of two sessions this week – one at 1/3 PLO the other at 3/5, I downswung hard and lost all of my April gains. The PLO was pure variance (top FH running into quads etc.) and 3/5 was a combo of that and of folding an overpair to a hyena-like crazy person likely bluffing and then getting no help from the deck on a nut flush draw barrel vs a fish Vpiping 80% and not folding third pair on the turn to a large bet. And just missing almost every flop.
I’ve eaten the humble pie and have gone back to 1/3 to reconstruct my confidence and clarity.
Congrats on leaving the job. Nice run at the tables, I’m sure you’ll have your confidence back. Coolers don’t hurt as much as mistakes.